|About Me & My Website||Contact Me|
Scroll down for the Frequently Asked Questions section.|
Personal Biography: My name is Kevin Joyce. I was born in 1985 and lived in the Martinsville area all my life, until moving to Roanoke in the summer of 2012. I graduated from Fieldale-Collinsville High School in 2003. Then, I graduated from the University of North Carolina at Asheville in 2006 with a degree in Atmospheric Sciences and a minor in Mathematics, and from Liberty University in 2010 with a Master of Arts in Teaching. I briefly worked at a local TV/radio station with Bill Wyatt before realizing that wasn't exactly what I wanted to do with my life. Currently, I work as a high school math teacher in Roanoke City Public Schools, and my wife (Kellie) and I live in the Roanoke area. I no longer maintain this website on an daily basis as I did for over 10 years, but continue to post frequent updates during the winter months.
Website History: In the mid to late 1990s, even before I had internet access at my home, I dreamed of someday building a website with my forecast for the Martinsville and Henry County area. That dream gradually came true during the years of 2000 and 2001. Updates were erratic at first, but I consistently posted updated forecasts each day (with a very limited number of missed days) from September 2001 through March 2012. My website is a hobby for me; I don't get paid for it. I do it because I enjoy it, and because I feel I can provide the people of this area with what is often a more accurate forecast than others provide. More importantly, I believe the honesty and integrity that I try to show in my forecasting, things that are lacking from many other forecasters, are what make my website unique. I intentionally keep my website simple so you can check it quickly, find out what you need to know, and then continue on with your day. However, I also have many other pages that you can check out, such as an extensive weather data archive and an educational page.
About My Forecast: I used to update my website each morning around 7 or 8 AM. Now, I post updates at various times during the day when winter weather is in the forecast. I use a variety of resources to prepare my forecast each morning, especially computer model data and the National Weather Service forecast, but everything you see on this website is by me personally. I believe that the fact that I focus on this small area, combined with my years of experience forecasting for Martinsville, are the two main factors that contibute to my generally high forecast accuracy. I no longer keep detailed forecast accuracy records like I used to, but when I did, my average forecast accuracy steadily rose over the years from about 83% in 2003 to just over 90% in 2007. (See the FAQ below for an explanation of how my forecast accuracy is calculated.) Thank you for taking the time to read this, and I hope you enjoy my website!
If you have a question, comment, or suggestion about my website, I would love to hear from you! Just fill out the form below. Depending on when you send this, I may respond quickly or it could take up to a few days. (Please do not use this form to ask "When is it going to snow?" That answer can always be found in my forecast discussion. Thank you for your understanding and cooperation.)|
|Frequently Asked Questions|
What is the Regional School Forecast?|
This section shows my forecast for the chance that schools will be open each day for the next 10 days. The highest I will go is 99%, because anything can happen (even non-weather related events such as a fire or bomb threat). If I have a 0% chance, that school or school system has announced that it is closed for that day or it is a scheduled holiday. (Please note that I no longer check local school calendars. If your school system has a holiday coming up, feel free to use the contact form on this page to let me know.) Even if there is a lot of snow on the ground and schools will obviously be closed the next day, I won't go below 10% until an official announcement has been made. This section is different from my 10 day forecast because I also have to take into account how long it will take the snow to melt as well as how quickly the roads get plowed. Obviously this section is most often used for snow, but the possibility of school closings due to other weather events (flooding, hurricanes, etc.) is also taken into account.
What is the Forecast Discussion?
This is where I express my thoughts and opinions on my forecast and how confident I am in it. This is one thing that I think sets me apart from other forecasts because I don't just make a forecast but I also explain my reasoning behind it; I also give other possible scenarios if I have lower confidence in my forecast. I talk about computer models quite frequently in my discussions, and a brief explanation of those can be found below the discussion.
Where does your Local Climatology data come from?
As of January 1, 2010, all climate data comes from the Blue Ridge Regional Airport (KMTV) in Spencer.
What is the difference between daily high/low temperatures and afternoon highs/morning lows?
(Note: I no longer do this.) You may be wondering why the daily high and low temperatures and the afternoon high/morning low temperatures are occasionally different. The daily high and low reflect the highest and lowest temperatures for the entire day, from 12:00 AM until 11:59 PM. Most of the time, the low occurs in the morning and the high occurs in the afternoon. However, this is not always the case. For example, on a day when a strong cold front moves through in the morning, the highest temperature for the day may occur early in the day as the colder air moves in, causing the temperature to fall during the afternoon. The afternoon high and morning low are necessary for me to be able to compare the actual data with my forecast on days such as the one in that example.
What are Heating Degree Days and Cooling Degree Days?
Heating Degree Days and Cooling Degree Days are used in the heating and cooling industry, as well as other things. The formula to calculate these is simple; it is just the number of degrees the mean (average) temperature for the day departs from 65°F. For example, if the high is 50°F and the low is 30°F, the mean would be 40°F, and there would be 25 heating degree days (65-40). If the high is 90°F and the low is 70°F, the mean would be 80°F, and there would be 15 cooling degree days (80-65).