Martinsville Weather - Winter Storm Forecast Review for Mon-Tue 01/10-11/11
Long Range Forecast (Very Good): I began predicting "Wintry Mix Possible" on Tuesday the 11th a full 10 days in advance. About 5 days out, I fine-tuned that forecast to indicate a wintry mix from Monday evening through Tuesday morning, which is pretty much what we ended up getting. I'm not one to brag about myself (and I do believe I was able to do this well only with God's help), but this is one of the best long-range winter storm forecasts I've had in the last several years and I am very pleased with how everything turned out!
Short Range Timing Forecast (Good): This aspect of my forecast was also very good. I predicted that snow would begin between about 5 and 7 PM Monday, and that is when it started. A few places saw a brief snow shower earlier in the day, but that didn't amount to anything. However, I did expect very light snow or freezing drizzle to persist throughout the day on Tuesday, and that did not happen. Tuesday turned out to just be cloudy with a couple of stray light snow showers.
Precipitation Type Forecast (Good): This turned out to be pretty much an all-snow event, with just a brief period of freezing rain in some spots early Tuesday morning. However, I was predicting more of a wintry mix (some combination of snow, sleet, and freezing rain) up until a day or two before the event. I'm not sure we picked up any sleet at all, and we only received a little bit of freezing rain.
Temperature Forecast (Very Good): My temperature forecast was very good throughout the winter storm, no more than 2 degrees off with either high or low temperatures.
Accumulation Forecast (Very Good): I gave an early estimate of 3 to 6 inches which obviously turned out to be too high, but that was done about 5 days in advance which is rather risky to begin with. Once we got within about 3 days of the event, I changed my forecast to 1 to 3 inches and stuck with it, even as flip-flopping computer models caused a great deal of uncertainty. That forecast turned out to be just right, as nearly everyone across the county picked up between 1 and 3 inches of snow (with many locations coming in right around 1.5 or 2 inches). One problem I have had recently is changing my accumulation forecast at the last minute, then ultimately realizing that my original forecast would have turned out better. Sticking with my forecast this time around certainly turned out to be the right thing to do!
Overall Grade: A
Summary / Conclusion: The aspects of this forecast that could have been a little better were the short range timing forecast (specifically with regard to the lack of ongoing precipitation on Tuesday) and the precipitation type forecast. However, overall, I am extremely happy with how this forecast turned out and feel it is the best job I have done with a winter storm in quite some time. I also want to thank all of you who help to spread the word about my website because Monday was another record-setting day with 3,951 visitors!
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