Martinsville Weather - Winter Storm Forecast Review for Thu 01/18/07
Long Range Forecast: My long range forecast for this event was not great, but since it turned out to be a very minor winter storm, that wasn't too big of a deal. I only predicted the event 2 or 3 days out, although I did have a chance of snow in my forecast for Wednesday several days beyond that, and that ended up just being a day off.
Short Range Timing Forecast: This part of my forecast was very good, as the system moved just as expected with regard to timing. Precipitation arrived and ended pretty much when I predicted it to.
Precipitation Type Forecast: My precipitation type forecast was also good, as I predicted snow in the morning and a changeover to freezing rain in the afternoon, which is what happened.
Temperature Forecast: My temperature forecast was also good, as my forecast high for the day of 32 did turn out to be the actual high. I did notice that most other forecasters were predicting highs in the mid 30s, but I didn't feel like it would get quite that warm, so I'm glad I stuck with my gut feeling on this one.
Accumulation Forecast: This was perhaps the worst part of my forecast. Although it technically wasn't wrong, as I predicted "less than one inch of snow", which could include no accumulation, I feel like I led people to believe that we would at least get a dusting, which is what I thought would happen. My ice accumulation forecast was better, though still a bit on the high side, as there wasn't much ice accumulation aside from a very light coating on some surfaces.
Overall Grade: B-
Conclusion: The timing, temperature, and precipitation type aspects of my forecast were all pretty good. The main reason for the lower grade is the poor accumulation forecast, as well as the fact that I only predicted it 2 or 3 days in advance. Still, I said all along that it would be a very minor event, and that's exactly what it turned out to be, although it was even a little less significant than what I was expecting.
Review my forecasts:
8 PM Thursday 01/18
8 AM Thursday 01/18
8 PM Wednesday 01/17
8 AM Wednesday 01/17
8 PM Tuesday 01/16
8 AM Tuesday 01/16
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