Martinsville Weather - Winter Storm Forecast Review for Sun 12/18/05
Long Range Forecast: My long range forecast was good in some ways and bad in other ways. I picked up on the possibility of snow 7 days in advance, about 5 days before anyone else did. The computer models were predicting that the system would be just a little to our south, but I knew that they could very easily shift it northward, meaning it would snow here. They eventually did shift it northward, and other forecasters started predicting a chance of snow by Friday. However, since we ended up not getting anything, none of that really matters.
Short Range Timing Forecast: My timing forecast would have been pretty good if it did snow, but since it didn't, this is irrelevant.
Precipitation Type Forecast: If the precip had reached the ground instead of evaporating in the atmosphere, it would have been in the form of snow, as I predicted. There wasn't really any threat of sleet or freezing rain from this system, given the setup that was in place.
Temperature Forecast: My temperature forecast was decent, although I predicted lows in the upper 20s and the temperature only managed to fall to 32.
Accumulation Forecast: Obviously this wasn't very good since it didn't snow, although since I only predicted an inch or less, I wasn't too far off. I did predict 1 to 2 inches in far southeastern Henry County, so I was farther off in that area.
Conclusion: I give myself a grade of C for this snowstorm, or lack thereof. The reason that it's not lower is because I did only predict a 60 percent chance of snow, and remember that also means that there is a 40 percent chance that we won't get anything. But, I was fairly confident that we would at least get a dusting of snow, and we didn't, so I think a grade of C is fair.
Explanation: So, what actually happened? My concern was that the entire system would be too far to our southeast to bring any snow to this area. However, that was not the problem. It was close enough to bring snow to this area, at least in the upper atmosphere. The problem ended up being that the air was just too dry. As the snow fell through the upper atmosphere, the dry air caused it to evaporate, and it didn't reach the ground. Because we were on the northern edge of the precipitation, it was fairly light, so it wasn't heavy enough to moisten up the atmosphere very much, and so the dry air remained in place. So snow fell in the upper atmosphere for several hours Saturday night, but it never did reach the ground.
Review my forecasts:
8 PM Saturday 12/17
8 AM Saturday 12/17
8 PM Friday 12/16
11:30 AM Friday 12/16
8 AM Thursday 12/15
8 PM Wednesday 12/14
8 AM Wednesday 12/14
8 PM Tuesday 12/13
8 AM Tuesday 12/13
8 PM Monday 12/12
8 AM Monday 12/12
8 AM Sunday 12/11
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