Martinsville Weather - Winter Storm Forecast Review for Thu 12/15/05
Long Range Forecast: My long range forecast for this winter storm was very accurate; I predicted "Wintry Mix or Rain" 10 days in advance and kept it in my forecast for all 10 days. I did shift it back to Friday 7 days out, but then shifted it back to Thursday in my next update.
Short Range Timing Forecast: At first I thought the precip would start closer to midnight, but eventually I realized that it would be a few hours after midnight and I predicted that it would start between 4 and 6 AM, in agreement with the National Weather Service's forecast. It started around 4 AM and ended around 8 PM. I did think it would end a little sooner than that, around 6 or 7 PM, but overall my timing forecast was fairly accurate.
Precipitation Type Forecast: Beyond a few days in advance, I thought more of the precipitation was going to be in the form of rain and there wouldn't be much if any frozen precip. However, my final forecast was for roughly 1/3 of the precip to fall as sleet, 1/3 as freezing rain and 1/3 as rain, and that is pretty much what ended up happening. My precip type forecast wasn't quite as accurate for southeastern Henry County, where very little sleet fell and there was more freezing rain and rain.
Temperature Forecast: My temperature forecast was very accurate; I predicted a high of 34 and a low of 27 on Thursday, and that forecast was exactly correct.
Accumulation Forecast: I predicted an inch or less of sleet accumulation, with 1/4 to 1/2 inch of ice on top. There was very little sleet in southeastern Henry County, but parts of northwestern Henry County picked up 1 to 1.5 inches of sleet. I think ice accumulation was 1/4 inch or less in most locations, so I may have been a bit too high with regard to that part of my accumulation forecast.
Conclusion: I give myself a grade of A for this storm. I have had 2 very good winter storm forecasts this week; hopefully that will continue throughout the winter, although I do have a lot of uncertainty regarding the next potential snowstorm on Sunday.
Review my forecasts:
8 AM Thursday 12/15
8 PM Wednesday 12/14
8 AM Wednesday 12/14
8 PM Tuesday 12/13
8 AM Tuesday 12/13
8 PM Monday 12/12
8 AM Monday 12/12
8 AM Sunday 12/11
8 AM Saturday 12/10
7 AM Friday 12/09
7 PM Thursday 12/08
7 AM Thursday 12/08
7 PM Wednesday 12/07
7 AM Wednesday 12/07
7 PM Tuesday 12/06
7 AM Tuesday 12/06
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