Martinsville Weather - Winter Storm Forecast Review for Thu-Fri 12/8-9/05
Long Range Forecast: My long range forecast for this storm was good; I predicted it 7 days in advance and didn't change my forecast much after that, except for once. 5 days before the event it looked like it wasn't going to happen after all, so I removed it from my forecast. But then it reappeared on the computer models and I added it back to my forecast the next day.
Short Range Timing Forecast: This part of my forecast was fairly good as well. I predicted a full 48 hours in advance that precipitation was most likely between 10 PM and 4 AM, and then changed it in my Thursday evening update to 11 PM-5 AM which ended up being very accurate. The only problem was that I didn't predict the light sleet and freezing rain that started falling around 8 PM, well ahead of the bulk of the heavier precip which didn't begin until around 11 PM.
Precipitation Type Forecast: This part of my forecast was also good. I predicted sleet changing to freezing rain several days in advance, and that is pretty much what ended up happening.
Temperature Forecast: My temperature forecast was good as well; I predicted a low of 30 Thursday night and that was the actual low temperature. It didn't get quite as warm as I expected during the day on Thursday (36 instead of 39), but that ended up not having much of an effect on the winter storm itself.
Accumulation Forecast: 48 hours before the event I predicted 1 to 2 inches of snow and sleet, but it quickly became apparent that we would get very little or no snow from this system. In my next update I changed my forecast to less than an inch of snow and sleet accumulation with around 1/4 inch of ice, and that ended up being fairly accurate although most places saw very little sleet accumulation and mostly just got the 1/4 inch of ice.
Conclusion: This was one of my better winter storm forecasts. I did very well with predicting the timing of the event, as well as accumulation once it became apparent that it was going to primarily be an ice storm. I give myself a grade of A- for this storm. The reason it's not an A is because I didn't predict the roughly 3 hours of light sleet and freezing rain that fell between 8 and 11 PM (before the bulk of the heavier precip arrived), and that could have caused some travel problems if roads became icy earlier than I predicted.
Review my forecasts:
7 PM Thursday 12/08
7 AM Thursday 12/08
7 PM Wednesday 12/07
7 AM Wednesday 12/07
7 PM Tuesday 12/06
7 AM Tuesday 12/06
7 PM Monday 12/05
7 AM Monday 12/05
8 PM Sunday 12/04
8 AM Sunday 12/04
8 PM Saturday 12/03
8 AM Saturday 12/03
7 AM Friday 12/02
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