Martinsville Weather - Winter Storm Forecast Review for Wed-Thu 3/16-17/05
Long Range Forecast: I had the idea of a winter storm around this time frame in my forecast through 10 days out, but my long range forecast really wasn't too good. 10 days in advance I predicted a chance of snow or a wintry mix, which ended up being correct. However, the next day I changed my forecast to a chance of rain, and then didn't change it back to snow until just 3 days beforehand.
Short Range Timing Forecast: This part of my forecast was also pretty bad. I thought the cold air would pour in much quicker than it did during the day Wednesday, changing the precipitation over to snow by mid to late morning. However, the cold air arrived much more slowly, and the precipitation didn't change over to snow until mid-afternoon Wednesday. Then, the snow continued Wednesday night and through midday Thursday, which I didn't predict until about 8 hours in advance. Prior to that, I thought the precipitation was going to end Wednesday afternoon. What actually happened was a second system developed and brought the snow Wednesday night and Thursday, and the computer models didn't pick up on that second system until Wednesday morning.
Precipitation Type Forecast: Aside from what I discussed above about the changeover to snow occurring much later than I expected, my precipitation type forecast was pretty good.
Temperature Forecast: My temperature forecast was decent. The worst part of it was what I discussed above about the temperature dropping much more slowly during the day Wednesday than I expected. Also, the temperature never actually got below freezing Wednesday night/Thursday morning as I thought it would (I predicted a low of 30, the actual low was 34), and that held down snow accumulations.
Accumulation Forecast: My accumulation forecast of 1-3 inches ended up being very good, although I thought that the snow was going to fall during the day Wednesday instead of Wednesday night and Thursday morning. But, thanks to the second system that I mentioned above, the snow continued and ended up dumping between 1 and 3 inches across the county, with (as usual) the highest amounts towards Bassett and the lowest amounts in the southern end of the county.
Conclusion: I give myself a grade of B- for this storm. Although my accumulation forecast ended up being correct, this was not one of my better forecasts overall, mainly because the timing aspect of my forecast was way off. ... This was most likely the last winter storm of the season. I thank those of you who have taken the time to read my forecast reviews and/or grade my forecast. The purpose of these reviews is to explain what (if anything) went wrong during a winter storm and why, and also to show you what I learned from a winter storm that I can apply to future forecasts that will hopefully improve my winter storm forecasting skills. If you have a suggestion of something you think I should add to my forecast reviews, please go to the "Contact Martinsville Wx" page and send me your suggestion!
Review my forecasts:
7 PM Thursday 03/17
7 AM Thursday 03/17
7 PM Wednesday 03/16
7 AM Wednesday 03/16
7 PM Tuesday 03/15
7 AM Tuesday 03/15
7 PM Monday 03/14
7 AM Monday 03/14
7 AM Sunday 03/13
7 AM Saturday 03/12
7 AM Friday 03/11
7 AM Thursday 03/10
7 AM Wednesday 03/09
7 AM Tuesday 03/08
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