Martinsville Weather - Winter Storm Forecast Review for Sun-Mon 2/27-28/05
Long Range Forecast: My long range forecast for this winter storm was pretty bad. I had been talking about the possibility of a winter storm in my forecast discussion about 7 to 10 days in advance. However, I sided with the trend of all the winter storms so far this season (we ended up getting little or no snow from all of them despite the face that originally it looked like we would get a lot of snow), and predicted that it would be mainly rain. For the first time all year, that turned out to be a very wrong forecast. But, since the rain/snow line eventually set up only about 25-50 miles to our southeast, it really wasn't as bad of a forecast as it may seem. Just a slight shift westward in the storm track would have given us mainly freezing rain and rain.
Short Range Timing Forecast: My short range timing forecast was good. I correctly predicted the start time (between 7 and 9 PM Sunday), although the snow did continue for a few more hours than I expected it to Monday morning. I predicted it to end by mid-morning, but it didn't end until between 2 and 3 PM.
Precipitation Type Forecast: As I mentioned in my "long range forecast" section, the main problem with my forecast was that I predicted we would get mainly rain. Because of that, my precipitation type forecast was not very good. However, once I changed my forecast Sunday morning and predicted mainly snow instead, that forecast did turn out to be pretty good because the vast majority of the precipitation was in the form of snow.
Temperature Forecast: My temperature forecast was pretty good throughout the event.
Accumulation Forecast: Once I started predicting snow in my Sunday morning update, my original accumulation forecast was "3 to 6 inches with higher amounts possible". I really wanted to predict 6-10 inches, but since my accumulation forecasts tend to be too high, I decided to go with 3 to 6 inches. Sunday night I changed it to 3 to 7 inches, then I changed it to 5 to 9 inches in Monday morning's update. 5 to 9 inches ended up being exactly correct, as locations in the southeastern part of the county picked up 5 to 6 inches, and locations in the northwestern part of the county received 7 to 9 inches. Still, my 3 to 6 inch forecast wasn't too far off.
Conclusion: I give myself a grade of B for this storm. While my forecast was very good once I changed my forecast to snow in Sunday morning's update, it was not good at all prior to that. So, balancing those two things out, I think a grade of B is fair.
Review my forecasts:
7 AM Monday 02/28
8 PM Sunday 02/27
1 PM Sunday 02/27
8 AM Sunday 02/27
8 PM Saturday 02/26
8 AM Saturday 02/26
7 PM Friday 02/25
7 AM Friday 02/25
7 PM Thursday 02/24
7 AM Thursday 02/24
7 PM Wednesday 02/23
7 AM Wednesday 02/23
7 PM Tuesday 02/22
7 AM Tuesday 02/22
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