Martinsville Weather - Winter Storm Forecast Review for Sat-Sun 1/29-30/05
Long Range Forecast: My long-range forecast for this winter storm was very good. I predicted it 6 days in advance, and with fairly accurate timing as well. My forecast exactly 6 days in advance was actually my best, as I predicted freezing rain, which was mostly what we ended up getting.
Short Range Timing Forecast: My timing forecast was pretty good; the precipitation did begin a few hours before I thought it would, but otherwise my timing forecast was accurate.
Precipitation Type Forecast: This is where I ran into major problems. I thought the precipitation would stay in the form of snow for much longer than it actually did. This also led to problems with my accumulation forecast, as I will discuss below. Instead, upper air temperatures warmed up much sooner, and that caused most of the precipitation to fall in the form of sleet or freezing rain. The reason I didn't think that would happen is because most of the computer models kept the colder air in place for a longer period of time. However, there was one model that did bring in warmer air, similar to what actually happened. I basically ignored it because it was so different from the rest, but that model usually does best in these type of situations, so I will not be so quick to ignore it in the future.
Temperature Forecast: My temperature forecast was very accurate during this winter storm.
Accumulation Forecast: Obviously, my accumulation forecast was way off. That was primarily due to two things. The main problem is, as I mentioned above, I thought the precipitation would stay in the form of snow for a longer period of time, and that would have led to higher accumulations (probably somewhere between 3 and 6 inches). The other problem was that the storm just didn't seem to have as much moisture associated with it as the models were predicting, so even if more of the precipitation had been in the form of snow, we probably wouldn't have gotten more than 6 inches. Models almost always predict higher precipitation amounts than what actually falls, but I still felt like we could get 4 to 8 inches of snow if everything worked out like it was supposed to.
Conclusion: I give myself a grade of B- for this storm. I thought about going lower, but my forecast was pretty good overall except for my precipitation type forecast, which in turn led to problems with my accumulation forecast. But on the bright side, I did very accurately forecast the timing of it from 6 days in advance.
Review my forecasts:
7 AM Sunday 01/30
7 PM Saturday 01/29
7 AM Saturday 01/29
7 PM Friday 01/28
7 AM Friday 01/28
7 PM Thursday 01/27
7 AM Thursday 01/27
7 PM Wednesday 01/26
7 AM Wednesday 01/26
7 PM Tuesday 01/25
7 AM Tuesday 01/25
7 PM Monday 01/24
7 AM Monday 01/24
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