Martinsville Weather - Winter Storm Forecast Review for Thu 1/20/05
Long Range Forecast: My long range forecast for this storm was not good at all. I predicted a 30% chance of light snow 7 days in advance, but then removed it from my forecast and didn't predict snow again until Thursday morning. I mentioned in my forecast discussion that there was a slight possibility that it could snow, but the system didn't look very strong at all on the computer models until Thursday morning.
Short Range Timing Forecast: This part of my forecast was good. Once I realized it was going to snow, I pretty much nailed the timing of it. I predicted it to begin between 6 and 8 PM and it started around 6 or 6:30 in most locations in the county. I also predicted it to end "late Thursday night" which I considered to be somewhere between 3 and 5 AM, and the snow did end around 3 AM.
Precipitation Type Forecast: Precipitation type wasn't really an issue. The snow did mix with a little rain at the onset, but it was pretty much an all-snow event, as I predicted.
Temperature Forecast: It didn't get quite as cold as I predicted overnight. I predicted a low in the upper 20s and figured it would at least drop to 30, but instead the temperature never dropped below 34.
Accumulation Forecast: My final accumulation forecast was very good. I predicted 2-4" and mentioned in my forecast discussion that I was leaning toward the lower end of that range, and most locations throughout the county picked up 2 to 3 inches of snow.
Conclusion: I give myself a grade of B for this storm, for 2 main reasons. First, although I didn't predict snow until yesterday morning, since it didn't really stick to the roads it had minimal impact on most people. Secondly, my final forecast was very good with regards to accumulation and timing. Do you agree with this grade? Please vote in my poll below and grade my forecast for this snowstorm.
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7 PM Thursday 1/20
7 AM Thursday 1/20
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