Martinsville Weather - Winter Storm Forecast Review for Sun 02/15/04
I feel like I redeemed myself from Thursday's busted forecast with a pretty good forecast on Sunday.
Long Range Forecast: Similar to Thursday's storm, I only predicted Sunday's 4 days in advance. For some reason, both these just didn't show up on any computer models (or either were really far to our south) until then. But 4 days isn't terrible, and no one else predicted it any further in advance either.
Short Range Timing Forecast: I did pretty well with this. Although the precip started about an hour before I predicted and ended about an hour later, as hard as this storm was to forecast, that was within the margin of error.
Precipitation Type Forecast: A little light rain fell Sunday morning, but otherwise this storm was all snow and really had no chance to be anything else. So this part of the forecast was relatively easy.
Temperature Forecast: My temperature forecast was pretty good; it didn't get quite as cold as I thought while it was snowing (32-34 instead of 28 or so), but the snow stuck anyway so that didn't seem to make much of a difference.
Accumulation Forecast: The snowfall accumulation forecast for this storm was very difficult because there was a fairly sharp cutoff at the northern end (for example, a fairly short distance meant the difference between 1 inch and 6 inches), and the northern extent of the precip kept moving back and forth. My original accumulation forecast of 1-4" was a bit low, but that was more due to the fact that after Thursday's busted forecast I didn't want to go too high with my amounts on Sunday. 1-4" was right in some places though, and my final forecast of 2-5" with isolated 6" amounts ended up being very good. There was a very wide range of snowfall amounts throughout the county, with anything from 2 to 6 inches being reported.
Conclusion: I give myself an A for this storm. My snowfall amounts were a bit low, but I think I actually needed that to happen after I busted badly on the high side on Thursday.
New Record: My website set another new record for daily visitors on Sunday. It seems like this is happening with every winter storm this winter. (But I'm certainly not complaining about it!) I received a total of 1405 hits, breaking the old record of 1331 which occurred on February 11. This is the fourth time this month (and fourth time ever) that I have had over 1000 hits in a single day. I am really quite amazed at this; I was just hoping to get a little over 1000 hits sometime, but if another big winter storm threatens, I could top 1500! As always, thanks to everyone who made this possible! Please continue to spread the word about my website so it can continue to grow!