Martinsville Weather - Weather Review & Explanation for Fri 02/06/04
I bet most of you are wondering what happened Friday and why my forecast (along with everyone else's) was so far off, so I am going to give a detailed explanation. Friday was one of the trickiest forecasts I have ever had to make, due to 2 factors, the cold air wedge that was slowly moving out of the region, and a warm front approaching from the south. The wedge just simply didn't erode as quickly as I had thought it would, and the warm front never made it this far north. It sure was warm to our south though. A few high temps from Friday: Lynchburg 33, Danville 37, Roanoke 37, Richmond 38, Greensboro NC 39, Charlotte NC 43, Greer SC 47, Asheville NC 48, Myrtle Beach SC 65, Cape Hatteras NC 66, Columbia SC 73, Norfolk 75, Charleston SC 75. As you can see, a very strange weather day. It is also interesting to look at Raleigh NC, where the warm front hovered over for much of the day. Here are the hourly temps at Raleigh from 8 AM until 2 PM Friday: 44, 50, 56, 62, 61, 49, 47. The warm front moved north of Raleigh for a few hours, then shifted back southward around noon. In fact, around 7 PM Friday, the Raleigh airport was at 41 while another part of town reported a temp of 62! In Cary NC, near Raleigh, the temp went back and forth several times between the 40s and 60s. In another report from about 4 PM, one location in Cary was 47, and another location only a mile away was 72! Friday was probably the strangest weather day I've ever forecasted for. Nevertheless, I did set a record for my worst high temperature forecast ever at 19 degrees off (forecast 55, actual 36). My old record was 18 degrees off on April 21, 2002. Fortunately things like that don't happen too often, but when they do, I like to explain what happened.
Click here for a map of temperatures at 4 PM on this date. Notice that temperatures are in the mid to upper 30s in this area, while it is near 70 along the coast of North Carolina.